Realidade vs. Obama
Publicado por JN em Dezembro 27, 2008
Bob Gorrell, «Creators Syndicate Inc.»
Paul Krugman, Prémio Nobel da Economia de 2008, escreveu um artigo para o NY Times no qual ela afirma que, independentemente do que o recém-eleito presidente Barack Obama faça, 2009 vai ser um ano infernal em termos económicos e que nunca mais nada será como antigamente:
Whatever the new administration does, we’re in for months, perhaps even a year, of economic hell. After that, things should get better, as President Obama’s stimulus plan — OK, I’m told that the politically correct term is now «economic recovery plan» — begins to gain traction. Late next year, the economy should begin to stabilize, and I’m fairly optimistic about 2010.
But what comes after that? Right now everyone is talking about, say, two years of economic stimulus — which makes sense as a planning horizon. Too much of the economic commentary I’ve been reading seems to assume, however, that that’s really all we’ll need — that once a burst of deficit spending turns the economy around we can quickly go back to business as usual.
In fact, however, things can’t just go back to the way they were before the current crisis. And I hope the Obama people understand that.
The prosperity of a few years ago, such as it was — profits were terrific, wages not so much — depended on a huge bubble in housing, which replaced an earlier huge bubble in stocks. And since the housing bubble isn’t coming back, the spending that sustained the economy in the pre-crisis years isn’t coming back.
[...] But once the economy has perked up a bit, there will be a lot of pressure on the new administration to pull back, to throw away the economy’s crutches. And if the administration gives in to that pressure too soon, the result could be a repeat of the mistake FDR made in 1937 — the year he slashed spending, raised taxes and helped plunge the United States into a serious recession.
Joe Heller, «The Green Bay Press-Gazette»
Paul Krugman avisou sobre o vácuo de poder durante a administração Bush o que ajudou a piorar os efeitos da crise económica. No Politico escreve-se que Krugman mantém conversas com a futura administração Obama sobre a economia.
Dave Granlund, «Politicalcartoons.com»
