Notas ao café…

A queda do dólar

Posted in notas ao café by JN on Outubro 23, 2009

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Bob Gorrell, «Creators Syndicate Inc.»

Vários países da zona do euro iniciaram a lenta recuperação após o colapso económico de 2008. Mas com o euro no seu 14º mês a valores mais elevados do que o dólar, os responsáveis europeus preocupam-se que as exportações da UE possam ser prejudicadas, como escreve a Der Spiegel:

[…] The signs of a recovering global economy are everywhere. Global stocks are up 75 percent from the deep lows seen in the darkest days of the financial crisis, many banks and other financial institutions are reporting a return to profits and a number of countries have emerged from recession.

But one development has some in Europe concerned that the path to recovery in Europe’s single currency zone could be riddled with obstacles: The dollar continues to weaken against the euro. The result is that European exports — one of the primary engines behind Europe’s fragile recovery — are becoming more expensive in the United States and in a number of Asian countries that have pegged their currency to the dollar.

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John Sherffius, «Boulder Daily Camera»

Para a The Economist, escreve-se isto não é algo muito preocupante e que também não preocupará muito os americanos, principalmente os que se dedicam à exportação já que vêm os seus produtos a ganhar competitividade e que, apesar de perder o seu valor e países como a China, Rússia e alguns países árabes já pensarem numa nova moeda internacional, o dólar não tem ainda uma alternativa credível e continuará ser a moeda internacional:

[T]he continued decline of the dollar does come against a backdrop of ominous murmurs from the likes of China and Russia, who hold much of their reserves in dollars, about the need to shift their reserves out of the greenback. Brazil’s imposition of a 2% levy on portfolio inflows is also a sign that other countries are getting nervous about seeing their currencies rise against the dollar.

[…] The simplest explanation for the currency’s decline is based on risk aversion. On the days when risky assets fall, the dollar tends to go up. When risky assets rise, the dollar falls. The dollar has fallen fairly steadily since March, a period which has seen stockmarkets enjoy a phenomenal rally. Domestic American investors may be driving the relationship, repatriating funds in 2008 when they were nervous about the state of financial markets and sending the money abroad again this summer because of a perception that the global economy is reviving.

[…] The absence of a credible alternative to the dollar means that, despite its declining value, its status as the world’s reserve currency is not seriously under threat. But the system could change in other ways. A world where currencies traded within bands, or where foreign creditors insist on America issuing some debt in other currencies, are all real possibilities as the world adjusts to a declining dollar.

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Scott Stantis, «USA Today»

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