Notas ao café…

Alarmismo nuclear

Posted in notas ao café by JN on Novembro 2, 2009

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John Sherffius,«Boulder Daily Camera»

John Mueller, na Foreign Policy, escreve “The Rise of Nuclear Alarmism”, como aprendemos o medo das armas nucleares, porque não as devemos temer e sobre o pequeno impacto que estas tiveram no curso da História. Se Albert Einstein disse que as armas nucleares mudaram tudo menos a nossa forma de pensar, Mueller diz que essas mesmas armas pouco mudaram o mundo, menos a nossa forma de pensar, além de terem sido uma ridícula forma de gastar preciosos recursos. Muller escreve a desnuclearização do mundo é algo inevitável:

[…] Nuclear weapons are, of course, routinely given credit for preventing or deterring a major war, especially during the Cold War. However, it is increasingly clear that the Soviet Union never had the slightest interest in engaging in any kind of conflict that would remotely resemble World War II, whether nuclear or not. Its agenda mainly stressed revolution, class rebellion, and civil war, conflict areas in which nuclear weapons are irrelevant.

Nor have possessors of the weapons ever really been able to find much military use for them in actual armed conflicts. […]

In fact, a major reason so few technologically capable countries have actually sought to build the weapons, contrary to decades of hand-wringing prognostication, is that most have found them, on examination, to be a substantial and even ridiculous misdirection of funds, effort, and scientific talent.

[…] The result was a colossal and absurd waste of funds. During the Cold War alone, it has been calculated, the United States spent enough money on these useless weapons and their increasingly fancy delivery systems to have purchased somewhere between 55 and 100 percent of everything in the country except the land.

[…] Today, alarm is focused on the even more pathetic regime in North Korea, which has now tested devices that if detonated in the middle of New York’s Central Park would be unable to destroy buildings on its periphery. There is even more hysteria about Iran, which has repeatedly insisted that it has no intention of developing the weapons. If that regime changes its mind or is lying, it is likely to find that, except for stoking the national ego for a while, the bombs are substantially valueless, a very considerable waste of money and effort, and “absolute” primarily in their irrelevance.

As for the rest of the world, the nuclear age is clearly on the wane. [T]he former contestants in the Cold War have reduced their nuclear warheads by more than 50,000 to around 18,000. Other countries, like France, have also substantially cut their nuclear arsenals, while China and others have maintained them in far lower numbers than expected.

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