O “pico do petróleo” revisitado
Terry Macalister, no The Guardian, escreve um artigo polémico, que volta a colocar a teoria do “Pico do Petróleo” (ou Pico de Hubber) novamente em discussão: o mundo está muito mais perto de ficar sem petróleo do que admitem as estimativas oficiais, e isto de acordo com uma denúncia da Agência Internacional de Energia (AIE). Esta agência alega que este facto tem sido deliberadamente ocultado para não provocar o “pânico da compra”. Segundo um alto-funcionário da AIE, os EUA têm tido um papel fundamental, exercendo pressão para que se subestime a taxa de declínio dos campos produtivos actuais e que se sobrestime as possibilidades de encontrar novas reservas.
Arcadio, «La Prensa»
Esta denuncia coloca em xeque a exactidão dos dados publicados no “World Energy Outlook”, sobre a procura e a oferta de petróleo, que é publicado pela própria AIE, e utilizados pelos governos de vários países como guia de políticas energéticas, como escreve Macalister:
[…] In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.
Now the “peak oil” theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. “The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year,” said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. “The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today’s number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.
“Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources,” he added.
A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was “imperative not to anger the Americans” but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. “We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,” he added.
Chappatte, «Globe Cartoon»