Notas ao café…

O modelo “Tiananmen”

Posted in notas ao café by JN on Janeiro 5, 2010

Randy Bish, «Pittsburgh Tribune-Review»

São mais de seis meses de confrontos entre o governo do Irão e os seus opositores. Robin Wright, na Time, escreve que o governo de Teerão adoptou o modelo de Tiananmen para assegurar a sua sobrevivência e que já mostrou que utilizará todo o seu poder militar e judicial contra líderes da oposição, dissidentes, manifestantes de rua e com todos aqueles que mostrarem alguma simpatia para com estes movimentos:

[…] But the Chinese model of using all-out force against a budding opposition movement, as used in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989, may not be as effective in the Islamic Republic of 2010. The two country’s systems and societies have more differences than similarities. Yet the regime nonetheless appears intent on employing tactics normally reserved for foreign threats. […]

But there are important differences between the two that may result in different outcomes. In Iran, the catalyst was the charge that the authorities had stolen an election that the opposition believes Mousavi won; the Chinese protestors had no history of voting in competitive elections and were mobilized by the death of Hu Yaobang, a reformist member of the communist leadership. China used maximum force relatively early; it contained the challenge within seven weeks. Iran’s regime is losing momentum after seven months; demonstrations late last month spread to at least 10 major cities. China banned the foreign press and tightly controlled state media; Iran has been unable to prevent eyewitness accounts of citizen journalists from reaching the Internet, Facebook and Twitter.

The biggest difference may be that Iran is historically more democratic than China, where public participation in politics has been restricted for centuries. Iranians have had a growing role in politics since the 1905-11 Constitutional Revolution produced Asia’s first parliament; they’ve voted for decades under both a monarchy and a theocracy. Also, China has long been a closed society; Iran’s Indo-European population has long had exposure to Western ideas and education.

Rather than Tiananmen, Iran’s opposition is hoping to repeat a different event from 1989 — the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Eastern Europe’s communist regimes. […]

2790_Paresh Nath, «The Khaleej Times»

Entretanto em Washington, os problemas que o governo iraniano enfrenta a nível doméstico e os problemas que este não esperava no seu programa nuclear tornaram-no mais vulnerável a sanções imediatas, e, a administração americana vê na actual situação do Irão uma oportunidade para forçar este país a negociar.


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