Notas ao café…

Pressão económica ao Irão

Posted in notas ao café by JN on Março 19, 2010


Emad Hajjaj

Apesar dos obstáculos que o Conselho de Segurança enfrenta nas sanções ao Irão (a China opõem-se às novas sanções), as sanções unilaterais contra este país estão a ter algum impacto,  no dia-a-dia dos iranianos pelo menos, mas que não será necessariamente o suficiente para alterar o comportamento do governo iraniano, como escreve a Time:

[…] Despite the progress being made on sanctions, however, analysts are pessimistic over the prospects for the new measures breaking the stalemate. Three previous rounds of U.N. sanctions and various unilateral measures by Western countries have done nothing to change Tehran’s commitment to its nuclear program. New sanctions “will be a squeeze on Iran, but this is not likely to change Iran’s policy towards its nuclear program,” says Cliff Kupchan, an Iran specialist and director of the Eurasia Group in Washington. Instead, he says, “we will very likely face a choice of accepting a nuclear Iran, or using military force.”

Iran, meanwhile, is preparing to absorb the body blow of new sanctions: its parliament has proposed decreasing the ration of heavily subsidized gas that Iranians are allowed to buy each month, from 80 L (about 21 gal.) to 60 L (about 16 gal.) — above that amount, the price at the pumps would double. Such measures might limit the impact of gasoline sanctions on Iran’s economy, but the resulting hardship could provide grist for Iran’s feisty political opposition, which is seeking to focus its efforts on challenging the regime on economic issues in order to widen its support base. “With the E.U., U.S. and Russia all on side, it [would] be more difficult for [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad to say, ‘It’s an American plot, gas prices are going up and it is all the Americans’ fault,’ ” says Kupchan. “They might say that, but it will be more difficult to argue it.”

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