O fim de um status quo
No Charlemagne’s notebook, o blog de política europeia da The Economist, Charlemagne escreve que a Bélgica — um reino que ele considera “artificial” — com a vitória da Nova Aliança Flamenga nas eleições legislativas está mais próxima do seu fim. Mas como Charlemagne afirma, Bart De Wever — um separatista convicto — foi inteligente o suficiente em não usar a palavra “separatista” nestas eleições, antes a palavra “confederação”: a formação de dois estados autónomos com algum tipo de política externa conjunta:
[…] True, he has made no secret of his belief that this is only a step to full Flemish independence, but his genius was to position himself as the most radical of the mainstream leaders, pushing the status quo as far as it can possibly go without triggering an existential crisis. He dangled before Flemish voters the idea that, armed with a thumping mandate from them, he would have the power to demand a constitutional structure that finally reflected the Flemish view of reality: that Belgium is made up of two societies, in which a thrifty, centre-right, Dutch-speaking north should no longer have to subsidise a poorer, welfare addicted French-speaking, socialist south. […]
Does this mean that Flemish voters have converted en masse to separatism and the N-VA’s faintly menacing form of flag-waving, hymn-bellowing nationalism? Have southerners converted en masse to bone-in-the-nose socialism? Does Mr De Wever believe that the EU is about to become a federal superstate, allowing him to preside over the gentle dissolution of Belgium? No.
So what is going on? The country’s voters have realised that the status quo is broken: it took 282 days to form a permanent coalition government after the last elections, and even after that there seemed to be prime ministerial resignations and political crises every other month. Voters knew a big power struggle was due and so they elected the toughest-looking champions they knew, to defend their interests. […]