Notas ao café…

Os novos problemas de Ahmadinejad

Posted in notas ao café by JN on Julho 21, 2010

Chappatte, «International Herald Tribune»

Joe Klein, na Time, escreve que a possibilidade de um ataque militar ao Irão está de volta à mesa da Casa Branca. Robert Gates, o Secretário da Defesa, que antes sempre se opôs a tal ataque parece que está a mudar de ideias e Leon Panetta, o Director da CIA, acha que as sanções a esta país não terão qualquer tipo de efeito:

[…] Gates is sounding more belligerent these days. “I don’t think we’re prepared to even talk about containing a nuclear Iran,” he told Fox News on June 20. “We do not accept the idea of Iran having nuclear weapons.” In fact, Gates was reflecting a new reality in the military and intelligence communities. Diplomacy and economic pressure remain the preferred means to force Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal, but there isn’t much hope that’s going to happen. “Will [sanctions] deter them from their ambitions with regards to nuclear capability?” CIA Director Leon Panetta told ABC News on June 27. “Probably not.” So the military option is very much back on the table.

What has changed? “I started to rethink this last November,” a recently retired U.S. official with extensive knowledge of the issue told me. “We offered the Iranians a really generous deal, which their negotiators accepted,” he went on, referring to the offer to exchange Iran’s 1.2 tons of low-enriched uranium (3.5% pure) for higher-enriched (20%) uranium for medical research and use. “When the leadership shot that down, I began to think, Well, we made the good-faith effort to engage. What do we do now?” […]

Petar Pismestrovic, «Kleine Zeitung»

Talvez que os Srs. Gates e Panneta estejam errados. Arang Keshavarzian, na Foreign Policy, escreve sobre a onda de protestos e greves que atingiram os bazares de Teerão. Não estão ligados ao “Movimento Verde” das últimas eleições, nem com o assunto nuclear mas são um fonte de problemas para o Presidente Ahmadinejad. Protestam devido à economia e as sanções de que o Irão é alvo não são alheias ao facto:

[…] The macroeconomic data on Iran is not encouraging. Though the government has proudly touted that inflation has gone down to single digits, this is probably a product of economic recession and the cooling of the housing market rather than a sign of fiscal health and economic stability. The economic sanctions passed by the United States and Europe will also soon take their toll. Ordinary Iranians will probably pay higher prices at the cash register, but the sanctions will have implications for the commercial networks that import, export, and distribute consumer and other goods. Sanctions will bolster the position of shadowy transnational networks and middlemen, as well as the role of politically powerful actors, such as members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, who are best equipped to skirt these regulations. Iranians are also bracing themselves for the impending radical reform of the subsidy system, which will replace broad price controls on basic goods with cash payments.

The combination of high unemployment, political turmoil, and continued threats of a military attack will soon lead to a drop in consumer spending and a cut in bazaari profits. Already, there’s reportedly been an epidemic in Iran of bounced checks. The bazaaris’ stance during this year’s tax negotiations was no doubt informed by the ominous economic horizon. […]

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