Notas ao café…

Depois de Kim Jong Il

Posted in notas ao café by JN on Outubro 4, 2010

Paresh Nath, «The Khaleej Times»

A 26 de Setembro, em Pyongyang, realizou-se um congresso do Partido dos Trabalhadores da Coreia do Norte, o primeiro desde 1980. Segundo muitos analistas foi o congresso em que Kim Jong Il nomeou o seu sucessor: o seu filho Kim Jong Un. Se o rumor é verdadeiro ou não, é algo que, como tudo o que se passa na Coreia do Norte, não se sabe, como escreve Bill Powell na Time:

[…] Most North Korea watchers believe Kim Jong Un’s eventual succession to the job now occupied by his ailing, 68-year-old father is a done deal. Most, but not all. Trying to figure out the internal politics of the regime in Pyongyang makes Cold War–era Kremlinology seem easy. That’s why former President Jimmy Carter created a stir recently with a posting on the website of his nonprofit Carter Center suggesting the incumbent had dismissed the conventional wisdom over his succession. Carter noted that during a recent trip to China that coincided with a visit there by Kim Jong Il, he had been told by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao that the North Koreans were ready to rejoin six-party nuclear-disarmament talks. Continued Carter: “He surprised us by quoting the [North Korean] leader regarding the prospective promotion of his son, Kim Jong Un, as ‘a false rumor from the West.'” (Comment on this story.)

China’s leaders are the only foreign government thought to be remotely plugged into what Kim Jong Il is thinking. Could it be possible that the whole Kim Jong Un meme is, in fact, a “false rumor,” and that the purpose of this week’s meeting in Pyongyang is something else entirely? Alas, this being North Korea, anything’s possible. It literally took years for word to seep out that Kim Il Sung had positioned Kim Jong Il to be his successor. That, however, was a time when there were few refugees from the North living in either South Korea or China, and well before the era of cell phones. Now, information trickles out much more quickly. If Kim Jong Un is in fact the likely successor in the unenviable job of running that benighted country, this time we may find out sooner rather than later.

Olle Johansson

Joshua Keating e Charles Homans, na Foreign Policy, escrevem sobre sobre cinco possíveis futuros autocratas que estão à espera de herdar o poder: o já referido Kim Jong Un, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue (Guiné Equatorial), Gamal Mubarak (Egipto), Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi (Líbia) e Gulnara Karimova (Uzbequistão).


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